About The Long Change
The Long Change is a public-data hockey research publication. It uses MoneyPuck shot data, Evolving Hockey GAR/RAPM, NHL EDGE tracking percentiles, Natural Stat Trick, and Real Kyper & Bourne podcast transcripts to ask careful questions about NHL play.
The name is also a hockey concept — the long change, the 2nd-period bench configuration where every team defends the zone farther from its bench. The site's signature recurring series will run under that banner.
What this is
- Daily and weekly cards: postgame, depth, process, goalie leverage.
- Essays on long-running league narratives, grounded in public data.
- Methodology notes that say plainly what each model is and isn't.
- A source manifest sidebar on every piece, naming files and pull dates.
What this isn't
- A betting site. No tipster picks, no implied edge over the market.
- A replication of Clear Sight Analytics. Their pipeline is proprietary.
- A clone of HockeyStatCards. Cards exist here to support research.
- A fantasy projection product.
The four rules
- Clear Sight's pipeline is proprietary; no replication.
- No numeric comparison to anything Vally or Clear Sight quotes.
- Every chart names its source.
- Proxies carry proxy-specific labels.
The auto-publish pipeline enforces these mechanically through a metric registry and a source-discipline scanner. Cards that violate them never ship without a human review.
Contact
Best feedback channels: reply to the newsletter, or open an issue on the site repo.